National economic cycles

 Cycles related to national economies include the long socioeconomic / psychological cycle, the cycle of economic development, the cycle of the leading economic country, the long debt cycle and the short debt cycle. The first four cycles may be strongly interlinked, as is now the case in the United States. The situation is exceptional and happens about once a century in a maximum of two individual countries. Now it only happens in the United States. A short debt cycle works within a long debt cycle. Economic cycles are most important for index and long-term government bond investors. The more an investor focuses on the activities of individual companies, the less he needs to take care of the national economy and its development.

There are four components to economic growth in advanced economies: productivity, the long debt cycle, the short debt cycle, and politics. In the long run, economic growth is based on changes in productivity and the number of working age population. Policies generally do not play a major role in the short-term productivity of advanced economies. Most political agents do the same things, even if they sell it under a different name. Politics has only a meaning when there are significant forces of change in the social system. This happens on average once in a person’s lifetime. Major changes in the social system follow the socioeconomic / psychological cycle. Birth rates are also wrapped around it.

The long debt cycle is also wrapped around the socioeconomic / psychological cycle, but short debt cycles have little to do with it. They mainly produce fluctuations around average economic growth. This is mainly reflected in productivity. It is impossible for people of working age to be cloned, for now. The policy influences fluctuations mainly by regulating the state and municipal loan taps, but there are no long-term changes in productivity. The main reason why politics doesn’t matter is the basic features of man-made systems. The outputs of political systems rarely change.

The current situation requires further reflection. Therefore, there is also a part in a book which describes how the long-term cycles intertwine. In it, I discuss the similarity between the long-term debt cycle of the United States, the psychological / socioeconomic cycle, and the cycle of a leading economic country. They intertwine in a way that affects the world. It is a pity that no one knows the exact effects in advance. That’s why I focus heavily on the current situation and guess what might happen. I have a better view of the first one. With regard to the latter, it can be said that my crystal ball is fuzzy.