A long psychological / socioeconomic cycle part 2. Phases

The phases of the cycle last 15-30 years. During the Civil War, the crisis lasted only five. The change of phase can be either a clear and eventful event or a gradual and ambiguous event. Each phase leads society towards the next. A new cycle begins after the Crisis. The previous cycle ended at the corners of 1945 and the current cycle then began at the High which ended during 1963. The subsequent Awakening ended around 1983 and the subsequent Unraveling most likely ended in the great financial crisis of 2007-2008. Since then, society has lived through a time of Crisis that is likely to end in the corners of 2030.

The High will begin once the main problems of the crisis have been resolved. The damage caused by the Crisis will be repaired for a long time during it. Society is slowly rebuilding itself. At the start of the High, the majority does not believe in the future. The mood is slowly rising. Faith in the future will improve to the end. The majority despises individuals they consider selfish. Self-confidence is low and group pressure influences decisions more than at other stages. The role of institutions is growing and they are expected to guide society. Birth rates are usually highest during the Peak. Family values are strong and the number of differences is low.

Awakenings are the times of the Cultural Revolution and the spiritual rebirth. People invest the most effort in developing their values. The role of institutions is diminishing and social disorder is growing. Crime statistics do the same. Demonstrations are becoming more common and some of them are causing riots. Children feel insecure and family values are declining. People are the most creative and creativity focuses on spirituality. At the end of awakenings, social orders disappear and individuals believe their inner values have improved. New values have replaced old ones.

At the start of the Unraveling, people are happy. Belief in the future is high, but at the end of the phase it will darken. The rhythm of life is fast and people think about the present. This is a time of abundance and selfishness. Confidence in governance and common institutions is low, as is morality. Spirituality is diminished, but the people are prosperous or feel that way. During Unraveling, the probability of the largest economic bubble in a lifetime is greatest. Often its consequences are corrected throughout the Crisis.

The Crisis often begins with a rumble. The mental state of society is changing rapidly. Inequality peaks. As the Crisis begins, People are divided, but it will not last indefinitely. Unity and peer pressure are intensifying towards the end of the Crisis. People see themselves as a continuation of a group more than as an individual. Institutions are changed and directed against a common enemy. Xenophobia is at its strongest and wars are likely. They are either against an external or internal threat. Civil wars hardly occur at other stages.

During Crises, responses to threats are often extreme, whether external or internal. Every effort is being directed against a common enemy. This creates tremendous destructive power and an extreme end result. The Crisis is the most important stage of the cycle. Its outcome determines the next cycle, creating a new personality for society. The end result is either freedom, totalitarianism or dictatorship. It is difficult to predict. The Crisis is closely linked to both the long debt cycle and the cycle of the leading economic country. The winner of the crisis sets the rules. This applies to internal and external relations, social relations and the economy.